Conference Contribution

Observer Based Plasma Glucose Prediction in Type I Diabetes

Fredrik Ståhl, Rolf Johansson

Abstract

Recent years’ progress in the development of Continuous Glucose Monitors (CGM) has made rich well-sampled glucose data readily available. Reliable, frequent measurements are of outmost importance for the emerging closed-loop control of diabetic plasma glucose. However, these sensors do not measure the variable of primary interest - plasma glucose, but a delayed signal - the interstitial glucose. To overcome this difficulty this paper presents a novel model, merging a black-box model of the glucose dynamics together with a CGM sensor model. Using an observer the plasma glucose level is estimated and predicted. The outlined scheme was evaluated on one patient, with a significant sensor delay, from a clinical trial of the DIAdvisor European FP7-project. Using the raw signal from the CGM device together with meal and insulin infusion data predictions for 20, 40 and 60 min were produced for a breakfast meal. Results: RMSE of the prediction error was smaller than 26 mg/dl for validation data even for the longest prediction horizon and no points in the C/D/E zones in the pCGA evaluation. The model clearly outperformed the CGMS and the results indicate that the method could be used successfully.

Links

http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/CCA.2010.5611242


In Proc. 3rd IEEE Conference on Systems and Control, Yokohama, Japan, In 2010 IEEE Multi-Conference on Systems and Control, Yokohama, Japan , September 2010.

 
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